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May 11, 2005
GOOGLMNO
As previously predicted, Google is becoming an LMNO. I had put them on the user-generated content value chain that we use in our discussions about the evolution of media networking. With Blogspot, (the consumer channel) Blogger (the backend platform) and Google (the search and directory link on the value chain) they were already a Media Networking Operator, or MNO. Today we heard that Google bought Dodgeball.com, a mobile social networking tool, thus adding the location-awareness to their eventual offering and the “L” to their LMNO.
I like this development because it is good for and further legitimizes the LMNO space. (We have been quietly meeting with potential investors who have all been really smart people, but a few of them just didn’t get the potential of an LMNO if executed properly.) It also shows that there are some smart people at Google who are looking at the future of media much differently than apparently are the incumbent media companies who are still trying to make a business selling CDs at retail. Who do you think is next into the LMNO space?
I have some predictions:
First, the most obvious ones: Yahoo, AOL and Microsoft.
Yahoo bought Flickr, which gave them the channel link on the value chain, they already have search and directory, and they recently did their Yahoo360 thing, so they have a platform. MNO. I predict a mobile application with some level of location awareness from Yahoo within the next three months.
AOL has their Journals integrated with AIM, which I think is pretty smart as a sort of fastblogging tool. They’ve got search, channels and platform. MNO. Rumor has it that they also are pushing a mobile blogging application of some sort. It probably won’t be very robust on the location awareness or social networking dimensions, but still, mobility adds an “L” to their MNO.
Microsoft launched their Spaces last December, so they have channels. They have search and they certainly have a platform. MNO. I’ll bet you their offering in the mobile space will ignore location and proximity but will be deeper on the social networking front than AOL and Yahoo. Have you noticed Bill is talking a lot about mobile lately? I think Microsoft sees more clearly an opportunity to turn every consumer into a storefront (which is the basic construct of LMNO) so they are going to pay more attention to media integration and personal selling, or “recommendations.”
Then of course there is Rabble, getting its finishing touches, which should quietly hit the market next week, but it may have to wait until the following Tuesday. I’ll let you know when I know for sure. In any case, it will be the first carrier-grade mobile media networking application ever. If you like Dodgeball, you will love Rabble. While there is a supporting website, unlike the others I mentioned it is a pure mobile offering rather than a bolt-on to a web-based experience. Though technically Rabble does integrate with many popular blogging sites, so it is also a bidirectional blogging tool as well as a mobile media networking community.
Now some not so obvious predictions:
Infinity Broadcasting – The Telecommunications Act of 1996 that deregulated radio generally served to increase consolidation of stations under two very large companies that control almost half of the market: ClearChannel and Viacom. This has decreased the breadth of available content, hurt independent musicians and increased advertising clutter. Consumers have responded by listening less – time spent listening is at a 27-year low. Infinity is experimenting with podcasting stations. I think they get user-generated content. They are the kind of company that could move more quickly than their competitors into the mobile space to build a sort of distributed media broadcasting network that feeds mobile devices instead of radios. Consumers are ready. Build it and they will come.
Reuters – They package and distribute media. When you are a media hub like Reuters and media production is moving to the edge of the network into the hands of people with mobile connected camcorders, it is a good idea to plug in. Think of a sort of realtime user-generated Corbis that also handles the brokering, transaction and clearance of a massively distributed participative media network and that is what Reuters could become if they embraced the mobile space. They’ll catch on sooner or later.
IAC/InterActiveCorp – I’ll mention Barry Diller only briefly here because I have written about his company before as my top LMNO pick, given the nature of his portfolio of companies. There is surprisingly little being offered in the mobile space right now, but I’ll bet that is going to change soon.
Advance Publications – This quietly managed print media powerhouse could keep selling magazines and newspapers, but magazine sales peaked in 2000 and are now at 1994 levels, and newspaper circulation peaked in 1987, and the decline is accelerating. Despite the fact that Hollywood is getting all the hype right now about downstream mobile media (60-second mobisodes of whatever Paris Hilton’s television show is called) the companies that will have long-term success in the mobile space won’t just see mobile devices as a distribution channel, but will recognize how mobility integrates with their business. Among a great many other things, Advance owns a bunch of newspapers, Conde Nast and Fodor’s travel guides. All deal with inherently location-based information, and all could integrate upstream and downstream mobile media into their offerings. It is a company like Advance that Gartner Group would call a Dark Horse Media Titan of the future, and they could very likely become a hugely valuable LMNO. (If they are thinking about the mobile space, which I hope they are.)
Anyway, congratulations to Dennis and Alex on the sale of their company. I will be interested to see how it gets folded into the Googlesphere.
Posted by Shawn Conahan at May 11, 2005 11:56 PM