Archive for June, 2006

The Mobile Ad Model

Wednesday, June 28th, 2006

I just re-read this bit from Techdirt from a couple of weeks ago about eBay’s super-secret Skype plans. Techdirt contributor Derek Kerton was underwhelmed by the apparently small news that eBay buyers will be able to communicate directly with eBay sellers. He suggested that eBay got caught up in the VoIP hype and is now trying to find an excuse for doing the deal. Derek certainly may be correct.

But I wonder if there is a bigger picture, whether eBay sees it or not.

In case you were wondering, the next big thing in the mobile space is…

(drum roll)

(…after the current next-big-thing opportunity in mobile social networking, that is…)

(more drum roll)

is…

Advertising.

Ta. da.

::yawn::

I have seen several business plans over the past few months that are all trying to crack the code on the mobile advertising opportunity. I am not talking about mobile marketing like sms campaigns from companies like ipsh and the like (which do a great job and are very useful, btw.) I mean advertising like commercials on TV and banners on the internet.

Here are the basic ideas I have seen:
- Little clickable banner ads on wap pages that take users to other wap pages.
- Merchandizing mobile content and applications within other applications.
- P2P-like content “superdistribution” of promotional content.
- Free minutes in exchange for looking at ads.
- Carrier-branded “offer lobby” where people go to an application category called “promotional.”
- Pre-roll mobile video advertising.
- Mobile yellow pages.
- Short codes on billboards.

My favorite is the LBS-inspired “You walk by a Starbucks (it’s always a Starbucks) and your phone vibrates to tell you that you just got a free mobile coupon for half off a triple grande latte” idea.

While there is nothing wrong with them, I would not personally invest in any of these models. They are all lacking in that they do not offer a complete loop to create a valuable advertising ecosystem. (Though there is nothing wrong with building one link on the value chain as long as you can sustainably defend your position.)

My biggest issue with most advertising is that it is annoying, and so I want it to be done right on my mobile phone.

WWRHDD?
When I am looking at a massive opportunity in advertising and how to absolutely own it, I like to step out of my provincial thought process and ask, “What Would Reuben H. Donnelly Do?” History’s first publisher of a telephone directory apparently knew a thing or two about capitalizing on an advertising opportunity. His directory became the ubiquitous Yellow Pages. When value is determined by supply and demand, having a monopoly on the supply can put one in a very valuable position.

So say you want to own 90% of the supply of mobile advertising but you don’t want user to have to walk around with gigantic phone books. What would you have to do?

So far, eBay is a good analog to the yellow pages in that they bring a Buyer and a Seller together at the moment when the Buyer wants to reach the Seller. The result is a low annoyance factor because the Buyer wants to be sold something and therefore is not being bombarded with irrelevant advertising.

Isn’t eBay’s model just an evolution of the yellow pages? The phone book sits there full of advertisements that are not annoying you in any way. When you open the phone book, you are still not annoyed because you are actually seeking information.

The yellow pages model worked for a long time, though you probably haven’t used the yellow pages since the nineties. At one point, you could fairly argue that directory assistance supplanted the value of the Yellow Pages when they started providing open-ended search services. Rather than having to know the name of the listing and using 411 to get the number, (for instance, “Dominos pizza”) you can now call 411 and say, “I am looking for a pizza place near my house,” without any specificity, and they will provide you with a few options.

Great. So back to eBay and Skype. You know how Amazon.com turned into a utility? They built this great e-commerce engine that powered Amazon.com, and they are such leaders in that regard that nobody can touch them, so they made the platform available to other online retailers. Here’s one such company: http://www.beveragebin.com/

Amazon’s zShops is another example. Amazon Web Services essentially turned Amazon.com into a utility – a very different business from where they started as an online seller of books.

I am reminded of Harry Sonneborn, Ray Kroc’s silent partner in McDonald’s, who viewed them not as being in the fast food business but in the real estate business. His model was to buy the land under the stores and lease it back to the franchisees at a minimum of 20% to 40% markup on costs, using their security deposits on the franchise as downpayments on the land. Brilliant. Buy a piece of shit lot in Victorville with someone else’s money for $1000. Put a McDonald’s on it and now it’s worth $1,000,000. Make the guy who made it possible pay you 20% to 40% above what you are paying to develop a massive asset base.

So Amazon is in the ecommerce infrastructure business.

Is eBay in the auction business or in the advertising business?

eBay provides real estate in their marketplace to sellers who promote their goods and services. The addition of each new seller increases the value of the real estate in their marketplace, and eBay charges them a fee for doing so. Good model. Once they got to critical mass of buyers and sellers off of their auction business, they made their infrastructure available to retailers in the form of eBay Stores.

Ok, that’s their infrastructure business. But where can it go from here?

If you empower online retailers with a turn-key infrastructure for setting up their stores, complete with a billing mechanism (PayPal) which you also own, how can you add additional value? Give every eBay Store owner their own 800 number, or in this case, their own Skype handle. So if you are a florist and you own a physical store and 80% of your business is people calling you, ordering flowers, paying you over the phone and having you deliver the flowers, why not dump your physical location and sell via your 800 number exclusively. That’s what the largest flower delivery companies in the world have done. And you can get a turn-key solution to power your entire business from eBay. Cool.

Now how about offering advertising? Nobody calls a florist expecting to pay less than $50. Knowing that, how much would you pay to someone advertising on your behalf for every call they generated for you? Around Valentine’s Day? Zero. How about the month following Valentine’s Day, the slowest time of the year for florists? Then you might pay five bucks, ten bucks – depends on how much profit there is in flowers. Same thing with restaurants on a slow Tuesday night, when they would happily give up 10% on a reservation worth $100.

The great thing about the eBay model is that it works a lot like Google in that the market determines the value of an item. Similarly, they could determine the value of their slotting fee in their advertising construct.

Great. So what is their advertising construct? Well, the most unstoppable company in the world would be GoogleBay, providing the search facility, infrastructure and communications for all small- and medium-sized businesses. The Skype acquisition is a brilliant move in the future GoogleBay because you can actually measure conversion on your advertising because it is your 800 number.

To complete to loop, eBay needs a search facility that is close to the user, like on their mobile phone.

Long post again, I know, so let me pull it all together. The mobile advertising model that will win, and I mean really really win, is local directory that is thin to the user/buyer and robust to the business/seller.

Here is all you need to do to capitalize on the mobile advertising opportunity:
- Create a directory of every local business on the planet
- Create a simple SMS-based search interface that allows users to enter a search phrase and get relevance-ranked results based on location. Provide a simple click-to-call interface. Make it sticky to the consumer by becoming a “personal directory” of frequent searches, favorite vendors, etc. and allow them to publish this as content if they wish, building virality.
- Give every local business a free 800 number powered by your infrastructure, which will enable you to monitor call volume and origination
Give every local business a payment processing mechanism powered by your infrastructure
- Sell listing and premium slotting fees to every small business

It is critical to give the phone number to every business and tie it to your payment infrastructure because then you can measure conversion on your ad inventory and establish the proper CPMs. eBay could totally do this.

Here are some other companies that can rule the world by executing on this strategy:

Google already has a local search tool, and it works pretty well. They need a decent payment processing facility, which they already announced they were building, and are launching this week according to the blogosphere. (Google Checkout, apparently.) Google CEO Eric Schmidt denied that their payment processing facility would compete with PayPal. In a WSJ article, Schmidt said Google didn’t intend to offer a “person-to-person, stored-value payments system,” which many people consider a description of PayPal’s service. Right, because this isn’t about person-to-person, it is about enabling businesses. All they have to do now is give everyone a free “800 number” through GoogleTalk and they win. They will get extra points for also adding to their package GoogleNet so they can also monitor traffic.

Microsoft, which many people are starting to say may be too bloated to do anything right anymore, has a strong chance at winning here also. Their slow-and-steady mobile OS strategy could be just what they need to get close to the consumer, right on the handset. Implementing their MotionBridge search toy as part of every mobile deployment would be simple. Remember I talked about Microsoft offering a free WiFi VoIP client for mobile devices in the mobile version of Microsoft Office Communicator. It’s a small step to package a free “800 number” for every business in the world. They have a decent payment processing tool and could simply buy a better one.

Now you understand why MicroSoft bought MotionBridge.

They also recently announced they are licensing local directory assistance information from infoUSA. Do you see the pieces coming together?

INFOSPACE, which seriously needs to recognize its massive opportunity here, has the best local search tool I have seen and it is being adopted by carriers. They also have one of the best local directory databases available. They have a mobile storefront platform that can sell ringtones and graphics, so why not other stuff? Turn that into a click-to-play platform and they have a solution to rival eBay Stores or Amazon’s zShops. So now all they have to do is give a free VoIP number to every business on the planet. They have the best chance at creating a carrier-centric solution in that they already integrate with all the billing systems. In the earlier example, you could pay for your flowers by putting it right on your cell phone bill. That would rule. The real winners in this example would be the carriers themselves, though many of them seem insistent on giving the search business away to Google or Yahoo, not apparently seeing the size of the opportunity.

Lastly, one of my favorite companies, TellMe, could actually win here, too. They power the 800 directory. That is huge. They have the kick-assiest voice interface in the world. To turn into the “google of voice” would be a small feat. All the backend stuff would have to be built or bought. Now that I think about it, if anyone has aspirations such as I describe, they have to seriously consider buying TellMe.

Anyway. I could be wrong. Interesting to see the pieces moving together toward something though.

Moviso.com is live

Tuesday, June 27th, 2006

I didn’t see any announcement about it, but go check out www.moviso.com, the off-deck portal from InfoSpace.

Compare to www.yourmobile.com, also owned by InfoSpace, which, judging from the out-of-date content was abandoned by InfoSpace circa mid-2003. Functionally, moviso.com is essentially the same as yourmobile.com. Both sites have two “featured” sections. At the bottom of moviso.com is “Moviso Recommends.” At the bottom of yourmobile.com is “Yourmobile Recommends.” Both sites have a phone selector and a search box. Both sites are functionally very clean, with discreet category windows that organize content very well into buckets that are easy for users to see and interact with.

I was wondering what moviso.com would look like, but I guess I didn’t have any real expectations.

Compare to www.mobizzo.com, which is a little more “street” in its presentation. It still works very well and is organized with simplicity in mind, but Mobizzo apparently took it’s design direction from myspace, whereas moviso.com has the clean look and feel of the iTunes site. They are both cool and work well as portals.

Pundits ask annoying and usually misguided questions. Here are mine:

1) Why launch a site that is functionally identical to a site you abandoned under a different name 3 years ago? My guess is that this is a beta launch or a “1.0” version of a portal that is going to be much more functional over time.

2) If you are going to launch a consumer site that is functionally identical to a site you already own, why use Moviso.com instead of Yourmobile.com? Moviso is certainly fine, but the latter strikes me as a slightly more friendly consumer brand. I said once before that “Moviso” sounds like the name of an Hispanic MVNO. Then again, in Spanish, Vs sound like Bs, and so “Mobizzo” also sounds like an Hispanic MVNO, which brings me to my second question…

3) Is there a possibility of confusion in the marketplace between moviso and mobizzo? They are undeniably similar sounding. Who gets to win that lawsuit if it happens?

Of course, it would be pointless to launch such a website without a massive consumer marketing campaign, but where do you spend the money? Online advertising doesn’t convert in the mobile space. WAP converts a little better (mostly in India and Italy) but the worldwide supply of inventory is so scant that you can basically own the entire WAPspace for a few thousand dollars. Mobizzo is running cable ads all around their Fox properties, which is a fairly impressive commitment to building the brand. It will be interesting to see where InfoSpace spends their money to promote Moviso, and how much. What amount of money propels a brand above the noise level in the mobile space? Is this really a branding exercise? There is no viral component to moviso.com, (or mobizzo.com, either) so direct virality cannot be relied upon. Word-of-mouth promotion is valuable, but cannot get you all the way there. The longest marketing dollar you can spend in the mobile content download space right now is direct response.

BlueFrog Mobile is a good example of a company that FULLY understands direct response marketing. They could be selling buck knives instead of ringtones and would be as successful.

I don’t know what InfoSpace’s plans are for marketing, but I sincerely hope they focus on DR.

I clicked over to the INSP page on Yahoo Finance to see if there was an announcement about moviso.com. There isn’t, but there was this headline:
InfoSpace Ranks No. 20 on Wired’s Top 40 List

That sounds like a nice honor. Curiously, as I am writing this, the stock is down 2.5% so far today, approaching a 52-week low. Um, so, wtf?

As far as my investment in INSP goes, moviso.com doesn’t interest me. I am long on INSP because I think they have a chance at owning an under-recognized opportunity in mobile search and advertising. I’ll write more on that tomorrow.

Makeup and Mobile Merchandizing

Wednesday, June 21st, 2006

There are differences between men and women. For better or worse, my habits and desires are influenced by my manness. The same is true of all men. There are just certain ways that we do things.

For instance, the next time you are at a gas station, stay for awhile and watch different men and women pump gas. There is one fascinating difference. When women finish dispensing all of the gas into their car’s tank, they remove the nozzle and put it back on the pump. When men finish dispensing their gas, they shake the nozzle to make sure there aren’t a few drops left, then they put it back on the pump. Sound familiar? Men are applying their personal experience with other nozzle-like dispensing devices to a process that doesn’t require the same treatment. When it comes to pumping gas, what is a totally natural behavior for men because they are men, is totally foreign to women. Though I wonder if we put a roll of tissue next to the pump if they would wipe.

Most men will never buy makeup. Buying makeup is a distinctly woman-focused experience that would irritate and confound any man. Simply put, the majority of men go shopping because they have to, and the majority of women go shopping because they want to. There are certainly other big differences in the way men and women shop, and retailers know this and use it to their advantage. On this I think we can all agree: Buying makeup is optimized for the way women shop.

It must work very well, because it is the same at EVERY department store in the world. The makeup is arranged and presented by vendor, typically in a 10-ft. square glass counter with packaged product displayed behind the glass, sample and other interactive product displayed on top of the counter, and a single register in the center. There are anywhere from 4 to 8 people selling makeup, some behind the counter and some on the outside, often applying makeup to women sitting in chairs. This is a highly interactive sales process because the people working there are not selling makeup, they are selling beauty. Women desire significant education on this topic and appreciate the interactive sales process. It is not unusual for a makeup counter to be swarming two or three women deep on weekends, nor is it unusual for a woman to spend an hour or more on the total purchase experience. Twenty minutes or more can easily be spent between the time a purchase decision has been made and the actual payment takes place because the process is optimized for selling, but not for processing payment.

I know this because I recently was a victim of this shopping experience. Our office is across the street from the mall in which there is a Nordstrom. Yesterday at lunch I went to Nordstrom to buy lotion for my face. For as long as I can remember, before I go to sleep at night, I have washed my face with whatever soap was made available to me, then I have applied whatever form of moisturizer was made available to me. Several years ago, the cosmetics industry started marketing products to men. So my soap is now a more expensive variety that comes in a tube instead of in bar form, and I have developed an affinity for a particular type of lotion called “M Lotion” by Clinique.

Whatever. This is far from an indication of my metrosexuality: I travel often and I needed a minimum amount of personal hygiene product, and some ex-girlfriend some time ago introduced me to this product and it sort of stuck.

Here is the problem for me and all men: This product, “M Lotion,” is available at the Clinique makeup counter. Usually I buy it online and it comes in the mail. Alternately, I can sometimes get my fianceé to buy it for me whenever she is going to be at the mall. In rare cases, perhaps once every two years, I have to go and buy it myself at retail. This is a very bizarre experience because it is not optimized for a man.

Dear Clinique: Here is some advice. To effectively sell this product to me, there should be an accessible product display from which I can select my product. The product itself or the box it is in should contain sufficient information for me to make an informed purchase decision. Interactivity should be low, but a non-aggressive salesperson should be available to answer questions. The time gap between purchase decision and payment should be as short as possible, as efficiency is my ultimate measure of shopping success. Finally, it should not be merchandized at the women’s makeup counter at Nordstrom. Mixing me in with the teenage girls, milfs and perky saleswomen achieves one thing: Discomfort.

So that was my recent shopping experience. I happened to glance at my watch when I walked up to the counter. It was 27 minutes later that I was walking away with my $36 purchase of two tubes of M Lotion, mentally calculating my hourly rate derived from my salary to estimate the all-in cost of my experience and vowing never again to repeat the experience.

Here is the really interesting part. I got a “Gift With Purchase.” This is the makeup industry’s way of introducing new products to consumers to drive upsell at the next shopping experience. My Gift With Purchase contained the following:
- Rinse-Off Foaming Cleanser
- Turnaround Concentrate Visible Skin Renewer
- High Impact Mascara
- Colour Surge Bare Brilliance Lipstick
- Colour Surge Impossibly Glossy
- Clinique Signature Key Chain
- Cosmetics Bag

(None of these Gifts is remotely useful to me, though it seemed like a lot of crap to hand over on a $36 purchase.) The salesperson’s job is to hand out a Gift With Purchase as part of the purchasing process. Her job is not to visually estimate the applicability of the Gift to her customer. And so I walked away with this dainty bag of useless crap, drawing at least one awkward stare from a fellow shopper.

Yes, I ultimately got what I was looking for, but not in a way that made me happy at all. In fact, the experience made me specifically decide to avoid the experience in the future, simply because the product isn’t being merchandized in the way that it should be to optimize sales. The entire approach to merchandizing was either created by a woman or by someone who really really really understands how to optimize a shopping experience for a woman.

This made me think of the way mobile products are merchandized.

Open your phone and try to buy something.

I handed my Sprint Samsung A920 to someone on our team here and asked her to go buy a ringtone. She pressed the “Menu OK” button, which took her to the menu. She couldn’t figure out where to buy a ringtone because none of the labels mapped to her mental concept of the place where ringtones get bought. She tried “On Demand” because that seemed closest, as in “I demand a ringtone.” That’s not where it is. After a few other short explorations of menu items, she backed out entirely to the native state. The native state on all handsets are almost totally useless. This one is above average and maps the soft keys to Favorites and Contacts. Later we found out that the Favorites menu actually has a “Get New Ringers” option, but she never clicked on that because “Favorites” communicated to her that it was a collection of things she had already bought or items that she had assigned.

And so she pressed the right side on the 4-directional button. I asked why. She has a Verizon Wireless phone, and on VZW, pressing to the right takes you to Get It Now. On my Sprint phone, the directional button is called the “launch pad” and they are assignable. It apparently comes with the right button assigned to the Sprint music store. While I watched over her shoulder, she scrolled through songs, previewed and bought what she thought was a ringtone. It downloaded to the phone and we listened to it. “How do I make it my ringtone now?” she asked. “You don’t,” I said, “because that is not a ringtone. That is a song.” She went back to the main menu and tried, in order, Tools, Web and Media Player, none of which are the correct path to buy a ringtone. “I can’t figure it out,” she said.

Finally she clicked on My Content, which has a link called “Ringers,” which she scrolled right past trying to find ringtones. I asked why she skipped over Ringers and she said she thought that was the place where my existing ringtones would be since it was under “My Content.” In fact, that is where you buy ringtones.

Then I handed her my Boost phone, a Motorola i855. This handset has a hard key on it that looks like a page with text on it. This is roughly the same icon that is on her Verizon Wireless phone that takes her to their WAP portal. She clicked around on every other key in vain, including clicking the “up” button on the 4-directional pad which bizarrely takes the user to a brief glimpse of what looks like a content menu where you might buy stuff, but then takes you to a “reboost” menu. Then she finally tried that one button that invokes the very clean and clear content menu, where “ringtones” is clearly spelled out. It takes you to “tonez” where the first option is to buy new ringtones.

Then I handed her my VZW LG VX7000 and she immediately clicked on the directional pad to get to Get It Now, and on that menu the first option is “Get Tunes and Tones.” That was easy enough, but then again her personal phone is on VZW.

So I handed her my Cingular Nokia 6102. She clicked on MediaNet. That’s not it. She clicked on Games and Apps, which takes you to a menu that says “Buy Games” but not “Buy Apps.” She backed out and clicked on Cingular Mall, which made her wait for about 30 seconds. Why is that? Is it downloading the entire catalog every time? From there it was relatively simple to get to ringtones.

And that’s just ringtones. This is the most mobile-relevant data product you can buy next to voicemail, and it is merchandized way under water where consumers cannot find it.

I repeated this process, asking her to buy our product, Rabble. Similar frustration ensued.

WHY is the mobile experience merchandized in this way? WHO are the network operators selling to? Is there a category of consumer that prefers very difficult shopping experiences?

It should be said that data evolved from a voice-centric environment and that none of these devices were built with data in mind. But wait a minute – that’s bullshit. We’re past the voice/data hump. Every device that is in the market today was on the drawing board 18 months ago, and we were well into the middle of the mobile data explosion 18 months ago. So why are these devices still so incredibly difficult to use for one of their primary purposes? Why are these devices seemingly built to confound consumers and actually prevent them from buying content and other valuable services? Why are these devices still primarily voice devices when data is at least 10% of revenue and growing at most network operators?

I think the answer is simple: The entire approach to merchandizing was either created by an engineer or by someone who really really really understands how to optimize a shopping experience for an engineer. Failing that, I can say with confidence that the entire approach to merchandizing mobile content was NOT created by a person who understands consumer shopping habits.

Here’s what probably happened: Every carrier has a handset czar whose job it is to buy handsets with the greatest feature set at the lowest cost. The handset manufacturers try to differentiate their products while still meeting minimum functionality requirements by innovating in the areas of:
industrial design (Nokia: “let’s not put a ‘back’ button on the phone”)
UI (Motorola: “let’s make the thinnest phone with the most counter-intuitive UI”)
Media formats (All OEMs: “look – we created another proprietary sound codec”)

…and the list goes on, bringing positive innovation in some areas and negative innovation in others.

Then the network operator further differentiates the product by integrating their custom experience, like Boost’s menu button or Helio’s coolio circle menu interface. Sometimes they go so far as to offer their own custom-built UI, which is sometimes better than the OEM’s and sometimes not. The operators further integrate their data experience, which invariably is powered by a different vendor and therefore invariably offers a completely different experience to subscribers across the board. Note that I didn’t say a “better experience,” because no consumer thinks that their mobile phone is exceedingly easy to use. The net result is that when a carrier adds a new subscriber, they force the new customer to learn an entirely new UI, nomenclature and set of conventions, essentially starting out with a negative experience. (Not to mention high CSR cost: “How the hell do I access my voicemail??”)

The limitations of the carriers’ vendors’ mobile data solution generally leads to a confusing experience for customers because 1) not all content fits into the predefined categories and 2) the shopping experience is so convoluted that a customer cannot easily find anything compelling to buy anyway, and the only semblance of assistance in this regard is a category called “What’s Hot,” which is the most tenuous example we have today of true mobile merchandizing.

On top of it, because the mobile data experience is inherently separate from the device experience and in fact built on top of it rather than being integrated into it, the user is presented with a dichotomous experience that is really two worlds in their pocket: The native handset world and the wild and wacky online world, and nary the twain shall meet.

The result of such an approach are examples like the LG F9100 that had a beautiful slider design with a full keyboard that couldn’t be used with a downloaded messaging application like Mobile IM. Really? So wtf do I need the keyboard for? RETURN. And now Cingular doesn’t carry that device anymore. Who’s to blame? I dunno, but don’t get mad about your customer service expense when you are pushing picture sharing applications that cannot access the camera on the phone.

What I do know is that this all comes down to merchandizing and nobody does it well. BUT THEY COULD. Where’s my Gift With Purchase? When I buy JAMDAT Bowling, give me a free month of Bejeweled, too. Cross-promote, cross-sell, merchandize and manage the shopping experience.

T-Mobile 5
Last week, T-Mobile launched their “5” product in two test markets. One is San Diego, because I saw it in the T-Mobile store across the street, and the other is Portland. This is the first real innovation I have seen in the mobile space in a long time. Like Alltel Circle, T-Mobile’s 5 allows users to identify a small number of people to which they have unlimited calling, regardless of network. Pretty cool, but Alltel Circle requires you to set it up on the web.

T-Mobile 5 has a slick and simple interface right on the handset. On your active desktop, you have icons representing your 5 friends. You can even replace the icons with little pictures of their faces. You scroll to the person you want to call and click call. Or send an sms. It’s like your PIM is an iceberg and the tip of it, your five friends, sticks up out of the water and onto the native state of your handset, putting this most-used feature right at your fingertips.

This is massively innovative because it is actually merchandizing communication. Rather than the functional approach found on every handset on every carrier around the world that silos communication into functional verticals called “voice” and “sms” and “mms” and “IM,” T-Mobile is taking a consumer-centric approach that combines an active UI that is easy and fun to use with the core communication functionality of the handset. Simple innovations in the future would include data integration, so you could communicate in whatever way you choose with your defined 5 at the tip of your iceberg.

So how hard would it be to introduce other active-desktop communication-based applications? Not very. In fact, why the hell hasn’t this happened already in a big way? The network operators are in the business of providing communication, after all. Making it easier to communicate and effectively merchandizing this functionality to subscribers should be the number one goal of any carrier.

Simply put, as an industry we now run the risk of finding ourselves selling makeup to men: The consumer mobile communication experience is not being properly merchandized. As new forms of communication evolve on the internet, these must be brought to the mobile consumer in a carrier-friendly but mobile-relevant context and presented to users in a way that they can adopt them without suffering through the pain of finding the “buy” button on their phones. The good news is that the innovation is starting to accelerate. The next big opportunity in the mobile space is communication applications. This means applications tightly integrated with the core handset functionality. The last mile to making it all truly valuable is effective mobile merchandizing.

WiFi Skype Phone

Saturday, June 3rd, 2006

Via aving.net, the Belkin WiFi Skype Phone.

We are starting to see the future of free personal communication take shape. I am not sure if I have mentioned it before, but Voice is going to free. In 4 years, there will be no reason to pay directly for voice calls.

This will precipitate major shifts to the communication value chain, creating opportunity in areas that have been unexploited due to the existing delivery paradigms:

- Go Upstream, to rich-media data communication applications that consumers will pay for.

- Go Downstream, to click-to-call mobile advertising that receiving parties will pay for.

- Play in the middle, and abstract the value: Offer portability to consumers by hosting communication widgets remotely from the consumer hardware, which consumers and communication providers will pay for.

- Own the PIM. This is the coming battleground in personal communication, akin to being the browser homepage on the web. If you are not a wireless network operator, you must do everything in your power to insinuate yourself deep into the consumer experience. If you are a wireless network operator, you must rigorously defend yourself against the trojan horse strategies of the likes of Yahoo and Microsoft who are looking to disintermediate you.

This is going to get interesting.

User-Generated Content Presentation from BREW 2006

Thursday, June 1st, 2006

Here is the link to my presentation from today: “User-Generated Content and the Future of Mobile Media.”

It is 21 MB, so be careful when you download it.

Some of it may or may not make a ton of sense without the narrative. If Qualcomm is producing a transcript, I will post it at some point if I can get my hands on it.

Feel free to use any content in this presentation that was obviously created by me - I only ask that you give me proper attribution.

UPDATE: (June 02)

For whatever reason, the videos embedded in the powerpoint are not working for some (maybe all?) people. Sorry about that. I swear sometimes I want to send a thank you email to Bill Gates for helping my Apple stock perform so well.

Anyway, I don’t have time to f*ck around with powerpoint, so here are links to the videos in my presentation:

Chuck Olsen, Welcome to the Future movie
http://www.ourmedia.org/node/7821

Ferenc Cakó sand animation
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2885454285452719231

Green Day/Oasis Mashup
http://www.nauticaltech.com/~josh/greenoasis/

Nokia cat fan video
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/catfan.html

And here is a bonus for your trouble. I was originally going to include this video in my presentation instead of the Nokia cat video as an example of user-generated truth in advertising. The point I was going to make was that consumers can turn your image into something VERY different from what you want, and that is potentially negative. In the end, I went with the Nokia video simply because it is more humorous.

VW Polo terrorist video
http://www.snopes.com/photos/advertisements/vwpolo.asp

UPDATE (June 03)

Apparently, Qualcomm took my presentation and “qualcommized” it. Here is a very lame version of it off of their site.

One of my biggest complaints about the homogenization of presentation tools is that all presentations end up looking alike. That powerpoint paradigm of “Title, bulleted list, white background” does more to make ALL presentations mindnumbingly boring than even the mindnumbingly boring presenters. I purposely make my presentations visually different by using the exact opposite of the powerpoint paradigm to provide my audience a brief escape from the droning boredom that is the product of that tool.