I am speaking today on a panel called “Where is the mobile phone really headed?” As someone who views the future a little differently, Dow Jones was nice enough to invite me as an industry expert, so I am representing the views of Intercasting Corp. My assertion will be that the opportunities most people see today must be leapfrogged, and the real money is not in content downloads but rather in enhanced forms of communication. Given the comments I am about to make about “2.0″ hype, I am going to try to resist the temptation of calling this opportunity “Mobile 2.0.” (But between you and me, I think that is exactly what I am going to say.)
Yesterday I attended the afternoon keynote by Genevieve Bell, Anthropologist, People and Practices Research at Intel.
She gave a fascinating presentation on how people use technology around the world.
In India, electricity is scarce. What kind of decisions would you make if the only form of electricity you had was a truck battery? What percentage of your energy would you spend on using your PC to access the internet?
PC-Bangs are fast-growing internet cafes in Korea. Not because people don’t have connectivity at home but because they want certain of their computing experiences to be social, and certain of them to not happen at home.
Rural literacy rates in India are under 50%, and 70% of India’s population lives in rural areas. Infrastructural issues constrain connectivity.
In Indonesia, the concern about universal access across an island archipelago led them to launch an “e-mosque” program because there was greater mosque density than tele-density. Mosques are central to daily life and provide a cultural context for computing.
In Malaysia, Maxis (Malaysia telecom) offers built-in Islamic applications that help users find Mecca. Your phone will ring you five times a day to tell you when it is time to pray. 1.7 billion Muslims worldwide are served by new technologies.
In Africa, there is a 7:1 ratio between mobile connections and land lines. Africa is the fastest growing region for mobile phone adoption. A study found that in certain regions, 95% of calls were not being completed: Users were calling each other for free to indicate certain meaning. If you call someone once and hang up, that means “call me.” If you call twice, it means you’ll be late. Three times might mean there’s an emergency, etc.
It was a reminder that whatever bias you might develop from your experience in your own market should be ignored wholly when you enter another. Similarly, something that is hot in one market may not translate to another. In Japan they eat squid pizza. That isn’t coming to America anytime soon.
Jumping the 2.0 shark
There are a lot of “web 2.0” companies presenting. It’s sort of a cattle call approach: These companies get 10 minutes to give their company presentation to the audience of VCs. It is interesting to me how many companies are NOT looking for funding. So why are they presenting?
Most refer to themselves as a “web 2.0″ company. All of the hype is making me wonder: How much more mileage can we really get out of the notion of a “Web 2.0”? As a concept, I admit that I like it. Calling something “2.0” is a simple way to denote that something has evolved to the point that it needs to be looked at as totally different from its predecessor.
“The Web 1.0” was a wild and organic thing built on top of something that existed before. It was essentially the consumer-grade version of the (D)ARPANET and was built upon the basic construct of distributed computing. That and no small amount of irrational exuberance led to “1.0” web businesses built around the efficiency and cost structure of the web.
We soon learned that the only business model the Web 1.0 understood was “broker.” Disintermediation of information-based businesses was the play that ultimately won that game. Stock brokers, real estate brokers, travel agents and many others all got disintermediated to the great benefit to consumers. Even dating sites to some degree disintermediate the local singles bar or your yenta grandmother who wants to introduce you to a nice girl.
And now we are knee-deep in “the two-way web.” If the killer app of the internet is email, then the killer app of the Web 2.0 is communication. Sharing pictures, video, calendars, blogs, profiles, preferences, friends, enemies, events, location or any other piece of multimedia content is the word of the day, and hundreds of companies are cropping up and getting real amounts of VC funding.
I just wonder if the froth is starting to look like the froth we saw during the Web 1.0 gold rush before the business models got fully ironed out. Companies like bbq.com and balls.com (that’s right, they sold balls) were getting funded even after dog food service providers had burned through millions of dollars in funding.
There are some scary similarities today. Read this opinion article from March of 2000, written almost exactly six years ago.
Here is a funny excerpt:
“Obviously, for a dot com, their most important asset is their domain name. So what do these morons do? They create artificial, nonsense words! Instead of something simple like cars.com, they get vehix.com. They come up with weird things like onvia.com. These names are hard to remember and impossible to spell!”
Now check this out:
Web 2.0 or Star Wars Character?
I got a 42. Kinda sad for me.
Here is another excerpt from the March 2000 article:
“I’m sick of the hype of ‘net companies. Granted, there are many useful things about the Internet, and I firmly believe it will change society in ways we can’t begin to comprehend now, but it hasn’t happened yet. I predict that eighty percent of the ‘net business that exist today won’t exist in ten years: the Internet will be completely different by then.”
What a seer this guy Marc Zeedar was. I think it is fair to assume that eighty percent of the 2.0 businesses that exist today won’t exist in ten years either. But twenty percent or fewer probably will, and they may be the Google of their age. Let’s wish them luck, but let’s also try not to jump the shark by over-hyping the concept. If you must, post your 2.0 company to the directory of Web 2.0 companies, but decide whether doing so marks your company as one of the eighty percent or one of the twenty percent.